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Prediction for CME (2024-09-07T08:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-09-07T08:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33235/-1
CME Note: Faint front in the SE in both coronagraphs. It is associated with the M1.6 class flare from Active Region 3815 and is likely not a separate CME but a less prominent lobe (or a fainter outflow) of the 2024-09-07T07:36Z CME. This front is much fainter than the bright prominent southern lobe of the 2024-09-07T07:36Z CME. This faint front is not seen in white light SOHO imagery but is seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery to the southeast. It is also seen faintly in the difference SOHO C2 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-12T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33233/1
Model Inputs:
2024-09-07T07:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=-42.0, Speed=483.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2024-09-07T14:49Z
2024-09-07T08:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=-28.0, Speed=249.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2024-09-07T21:18Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-09-12T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-09-10T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240907_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 110.57 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-09-07T15:26Z

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